France And EU Launch Strategic Reviews: China As ‘Systemic’ Rival

Four years after France’s first strategic review, the Macron government is updating it: Strategic Update 2021. Its primary conclusion: Europe may become less relevant as Great Powers such as Russia and China gain strength. France and its allies are also worried about emboldened regional powers such as Turkey and Iran.

The COVID-19 pandemic has sparked French leaders to stress sovereignty as far as their defense industrial base is concerned. The goal is today the “creation of mutual dependencies with partners (…) agreed upon as opposed to be subjected to.” The military rise of China, now rising as a “systemic rival” of Europe is clearly highlighted in the French document.

How to deal with the Chinese threat will probably be one of the most difficult questions for the European Union to address as it executes its first-ever strategic review, to be published in 2022 and called ‘’Strategic Compass.’

The French minister of the armed forces, Florence Parly took part April 23 in a ministerial workshop organized in Lisbon by the Council of the European Union about Strategic Compass as a preparation for the European White Paper.

The first outlines of a common threat analysis picture is starting to emerge on some out of area theaters : European countries not traditionally familiar with Africa or the Mediterranean from a military point of view have been participating in European joint operations such as EMASOH, the European-led Maritime Awareness mission in the Strait of Hormuz which just celebrated its first year, or the TAKUBA task force which gathers the special forces of seven European countries to train and accompany Malian forces in the fight against terrorism in Sahel.

Immediately, France has decided to boost its budget and personnel and equipment through 2025 –or at least till 2022, given the upcoming presidential elections. For instance, the French Ministry of the Armed Forces announced April 15 its decision to accelerate a 300 million Euros order for eight helicopters. Used by the French Army, Air Force and French special forces, the Caracal is currently the only helicopter in Europe that can be refueled in flight. The investment is aimed at containing the worsening aeronautic crisis and sustaining 960 jobs for Airbus Helicopters, Thales, Safran and their suppliers over three years.

The defense budget has been increasing over the past years with a double focus:

• modernization of both nuclear and conventional forces, the complementary pillars of France’s defense and security policy on the one hand;
• the pursuit of what is referred to as a ‘’complete armed forces model’’ capable of intervening no matter what kind of threat France may face, on the other.

Facing new types of threats, the French government has been very steady in developing new strategies in domains now considered crucial such as cyber (in 2018), space (in 2019), artificial intelligence (2019), long range power projection (associated with a new Indo-Pacific strategy in 2019), and, finally, energy (in 2020). It intends to pursue investments meant to enhance France and European strategic autonomy in game-changing domains and breakthrough technologies, such as artificial intelligence.